Looking toward the Hariri Indictments

Well it seems like we have been waiting a long time and we are still waiting for the Hariri Report and the indictments which will follow.  The latest idea seems to be that the final report will come December 10-20 with indictments to follow.

In short, the concern is that Hezbollah will use the indictment of its members and leadership as a cause de bello and attempt to seize de facto control of the state.  Hezbollah is adequately armed for just this possibility in addition to new capabilities to threaten Israeli population centers.

Hezbollah will not act without the consent of its primary patron, Iran.  The problem, however, is that if we believe what the Iranian leadership says, they may have very good strategic and rhetorical reasons to want to see Hezbollah gain even greater autonomy within Lebanon.

Syria is already acting like an Iranian vassal, serving the diplomatic and military aims of Iran in its dealings with the West, being a conduit for shipping banned items into Iran, as well as serving as a conduit for arms to Lebanon.  Iran's threats toward Israel are well publicized and its use of proxies to lash out physically at rhetorical enemies well practiced.  Anything which gives Hezbollah greater freedom of movement serves the interests of the leadership in Tehran. 

The future is open.  We do not know what it holds.  The next step in the Eastern Mediterranean, however, should start to make itself known in the relatively near future.

In other news, demonology seems to be making a sort of a comeback, though perhaps not in the way one would first think.

SCIENTISTS are not, in their own imaginations anyway, much given to myths. There is one mythical beast, though, that has haunted physics for almost 150 years. In 1867 James Clerk Maxwell, a British researcher, wondered if you could extract useful energy from thin air, in apparent contradiction to the second law of thermodynamics. He posited the existence of an all-seeing homunculus that might do so—a homunculus that was almost instantly dubbed “Maxwell’s demon”.

Demons of another sort continue to haunt the dreams of security planners around the world.  While the Mumbai attacks are recent enough to still resonate in our minds, I always use the opportunity to remind the strong of stomach to remember a previous attack that was, in many ways, more disturbing.

It took the 10 terrorists just 10 minutes to overwhelm Mumbai's defenses when they struck in November 2008. They were organized in five two-man teams, and the first waded into the crowd at one of India's biggest railway stations, firing AK-47s and tossing grenades. Soon more than 50 people were dead, a hundred more wounded. While this was going on, three other teams got out of cabs in other parts of the city and walked into two luxury hotels and a swanky restaurant, letting loose with guns and grenades. A fifth team stormed a Jewish community center, killing people and taking hostages.

Closer in time and geography America continues to practice the Politics of Avoidance when it comes to the banal yet very real threat of our unsustainable fiscal path.  It is hard to see how this ends well.  It is hard to see how we become the kind of people able to face these problems like adults.

Our political culture prefers delusion to candor. Liberals would solve the budget problem by taxing the rich and cutting defense. Think again. The richest 5 percent already pay about 45 percent of federal taxes; they may pay more but not enough to balance the budget. Defense spending constitutes a fifth of federal spending; projected deficits over the next decade are similar. We won't shut the Pentagon. Republicans and tea partiers think that eliminating "wasteful spending" would allow more tax cuts. Dream on. The major spending programs, Social Security and Medicare, are wildly popular with roughly 50 million beneficiaries.

Case in point, Paul Krugman continues to be even more vocal than normal in his denunciation of any attempts to articulate let alone address the problem of our national and private debt.  I haven't read anything which denies the nuance which exists in the real world with greater self-assurance since George W. Bush left office.  I am sorry to say that I find the dear economist less helpful and more a political hack with every passing day.

Me, I'm busy "gettin' my share done."  Weeds may be part of the curse but good work is a blessing.  i have every intention of being that mule that has "work left in him yet."