Enthusiasm Gap

Despite long odds I still stand by the predictions I made earlier in the month despite the fact that some of the final and most reliable polls have Boxer and some other Democrats winning their tight races.

The reason why is voter turnout.  It is always difficult to model who is going to turn out on any given election but it is this modeling on which all reliable polls are based.  I am thinking that the enthusiasm gap will give Republicans 3-5 percentage points over what most of the current polls suggest.  Who am I to doubt the professional pollsters?

Just a guy on the Internet which means that I do not have to conform my expectations to the industry in order to protect my backside and keep my job come November third.  ;)

Have a good Sunday!

Science Saturday

Science should teach children to detect BS

The reason we do science in the first place is so that “our own atomized experiences and prejudices” don’t mislead us, as Ben Goldacre of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine puts it in his new book, Bad Science: Quacks, Hacks, and Big Pharma Flacks. Understanding what counts as evidence should therefore trump memorizing the structural formulas for alkanes.

Feds Reverse: Genes should not be Eligible for Patent Protection

Reversing a longstanding policy, the federal government said on Friday that human and other genes should not be eligible for patents because they are part of nature. The new position could have a huge impact on medicine and on the biotechnology industry.

The new position was declared in a friend-of-the-court brief filed by the Department of Justice late Friday in a case involving two human genes linked to breast and ovarian cancer.

“We acknowledge that this conclusion is contrary to the longstanding practice of the Patent and Trademark Office, as well as the practice of the National Institutes of Health and other government agencies that have in the past sought and obtained patents for isolated genomic DNA,” the brief said.

It is not clear if the position in the legal brief, which appears to have been the result of discussions among various government agencies, will be put into effect by the Patent Office.

Attempt to eradicate Malaria might backfire

Efforts to eradicate malaria in some countries may be counter-productive, an international team of researchers suggest.

In the Lancet, they suggest some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, may be better pursuing a policy of controlling the disease.
They also criticise the World Health Organization (WHO) for not providing adequate direction.

The Rare Earth Trainwreck

Rare earths are important because they have special features at the quantum mechanics level that allow them to have unique magnetic interactions with other elements. A myriad of “green” technologies --  from electric and hybrid-electric cars to wind turbines and compact fluorescent light bulbs – depend on rare earths. And there are no cost-effective substitutes for them.

 The Upside of a Weak Immune System

A weak immune system makes an animal vulnerable to disease and parasites, but strangely, natural selection does not always weed out creatures that have what appear to be severe disadvantages, according to a new study.

That may be because the weaknesses confer some advantages. The study, in the journal Science, reports that while a strong immune system helps female sheep live longer, it is also associated with reduced reproductive success.

Out of Asia?

a new study in the journal Nature reports.

There has long been debate about the matter, but a recent discovery of anthropoid fossils including two previously unidentified species and one known species provides new clues.
The fossils are about 38 million years old and were uncovered in a rock formation in southern Libya. The anthropoids were small, rodent-size creatures that looked similar to larger, modern-day primates, but weighed just 4 to 17 ounces.

Friday Reading

Lots of good stuff caught in the net this morning:

Gold is not just for bugs anymore as the chorus grows of those who see a monetary crisis on our hands.

Bloomberg Opinion:

The prospects for an orderly unwinding of the extreme posture of global monetary policy are zero. Bernanke, Jean- Claude Trichet and Mervyn King, his counterparts in Europe and the U.K. respectively, are huddling en masse upon the most precarious perch in the history of monetary affairs. These alleged guardians of monetary stability, in their attempts to shore up the system, have simply created the incinerator for paper money. We are past the point of no return. Quantitative easing may well become a way of life.

 Washington Post:

Trichet offered this startling but seemingly well-founded estimate: Bailouts for the world's banks, corporate entities and bankrupted governments mounted by the U.S. Treasury, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and other institutions since 2008 amount to 25 percent of the global production of all goods and services. One dollar in every four earned by all the world's workers and businesses this year has been committed, if not already paid out, essentially to keep the world from spiraling into a depression.

"I emphasize to every banker I meet that this will not be done twice," Trichet said. When I asked him if he had evidence that the bankers understand this, he quickly responded that what they thought was beside the point: "I am saying democratic governments cannot do this again." They lack the resources as well as the will.

 In defense of marriage (and the poor) from the reductionist heights this author helps us understand the uncriticized assumptions of those who think they know better.

His interpretation of the “facts” assumes an impoverished anthropology that treats man as little more than a self-interested animal who vigilantly performs a cost/benefit analysis for every decision in life, including when and whom he should marry. In his view, the only reason for marriage is economic. His reductionist anthropology cannot imagine marriage as a genuine gift of self that is oriented toward the procreation of new life.

And for that reason, he fails to imagine children.

Science has finally gotten around to affirming what has been observable for some time now but is going to be met with shock by our youth oriented culture: getting older ain't all that bad.  At least not when it is met with a level of acceptance.

The concerns are valid, but a new Stanford study shows there's a silver lining to the graying of our nation. As we grow older, we tend to become more emotionally stable. And that translates into longer, more productive lives that offer more benefits than problems, said Laura Carstensen, the study's lead author.

 Finally, it is always fun to see the sword of deconstruction turned in new and interesting ways, like at John Stewart. 

This is the essential communication form for Jon Stewart.  He sends messages that contain both authentic and artificial interpretations.  He then plays against the receiver's selection to create tension and humor.  Since he always controls the floor in all interactions, Stewart is free to commit Double Binds to his advantage, comedic or persuasive.

He employs the strongest double bind communication against receivers who will not cooperate with the process (i.e. deny the double bind as a norm of conduct and try to be authentic) or the content (i.e. defend an unattractive position and try to be persuasive).  Since Stewart's work appears within an entertainment context any attempts to call him on the game indict the receiver as overly serious, dogmatic, or foolish while permitting Stewart to appear merely doing his job.

Of course the double-bind is, as advertising has become, a key propaganda technique.

Such a double bind is frequently found in contemporary advertising, advertising which this essay argues is more accurately defined as propaganda than as classical rhetoric, for it exhibits many of the characteristics of propaganda; chief among these characteristics is a speaker’s reliance on self-interest (rather than the good of the audience), anonymity (or the suppression of ethos), the use of saturation or repetition of messages (rather than the delivery of formal speeches), and the employment of emotional appeals (rather than logical ones). Advertising meets these criteria insofar as it is, in the words of Twitchell, “ubiquitous, anonymous, syncretic, symbiotic, profane, and, especially, magical”

With minor tweaking, I can see no difference between this description of advertising and the left-of-center ethos Stewart represents.  Glenn Beck (to pick on the other side of the political spectrum) is different only in that one is acceptable in polite society and the other is not, thus indicating which side of the spectrum is involved in propaganda and which is engaged in counter-propaganda, to what ever extent such a distinction matters..

Looking to November 2nd and 3rd: Elections and QE2

Through early next week I will mostly just be following those two stories as they develop.  I have a number of essays in mind for later in the month of November and December.  

The Fed's Impending Blunder:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expresses a view that I share but expresses it so much better than I ever could.

Now, I put my hand up and confess to having supported QE when the financial system was imploding in late 2008 and early 2009, and I continued to do so as the M3 money supply collapsed at 1930s rates earlier this year. I persist stubbornly in thinking that it was the right thing to do, AT THAT TIME.

But we are no longer in a systemic financial crisis, and the Fed’s motives have become subtly corrupted. Having argued during the boom that it was not the business of central banks to stop asset bubbles – and specifically that any fall-out could “safely” be cleaned up later – Bernanke now seems to determined to validate this absurd doctrine, bending all the sinews of the US economic and financial system to this end. One error leads to the next.

 Nouriel Roubini is a little more positive but sees a fiscal train wreck on the horizon:

What has been the fiscal performance of President Barack Obama? He inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, as well as a budget deficit that – after much needed bail-outs and a series of reckless tax cuts – was already close to $1,000bn. His stimulus package, together with a backstop of the financial system, low rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, prevented another depression. Mr Obama also deserves credit that the US, alone among advanced economies, currently supports a “growth now”, rather than an “austerity now” path.

But this is but one half of the picture; we must also judge his first two years on his ability to anticipate what the economy will need tomorrow.

I continue to watch a number of races that should not be competitive but are.  As I mentioned a few days ago, even Barney Frank (Chairman of House Financial Services Committee) seems to be in trouble.

Challenging the Massachusetts liberal is Republican Sean Bielat, an Iraq war veteran, and opinion polls suggest Frank has an uncomfortably narrow lead over a political unknown. 

In the run-up to Tuesday's congressional elections, Frank has faced a torrent of negative ads and mailings, much of it from groups outside the state who support candidates from the conservative Tea Party movement.

And to cleanse the palate, something lighter:

Sometimes oil reserves go down

Alaska's Untapped Reserves lowered by 90%.

The U.S. Geological Survey says a revised estimate for the amount of conventional, undiscovered oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is a fraction of a previous estimate.
The group estimates about 896 million barrels of such oil are in the reserve, about 90 percent less than a 2002 estimate of 10.6 billion barrels.

The new estimate is mainly due to the incorporation of new data from recent exploration drilling revealing gas occurrence rather than oil in much of the area, the geological survey said.

OPEC reserves were revised upwards through out the 1980's not because more oil was found but because the allotment system which dictates how much each member can pump is based on official reserves.  If you increase your reserves, you can pump more.  Once one member country starts increasing their stated reserves, then so must everyone else if they are to continue to pump just as much oil as before.

Each OPEC nation is on its honor regarding their reserve number, they do not have to show the science to anyone, and they didn't.

The net effect is that those of us who attempt to follow the news but can not be an expert on everything became accustomed to hearing about the reserve numbers going up, and always going up.  We hear about a new find in Brazil or Canada and the number sounds large so we assume that it is a significant find.  The talking heads are not very good at giving us context and we are acculturated to trusting them.  They would not report it, we intuit, unless it were important.

But when science is used, sometimes reserve numbers go down.  And, since the 1970's those "large finds" are a pittance when we consider the rate at which those large finds will ever produce compared to a) the rate of (growing) world consumption and b) the impact of a 5% depletion rate on most of the world's largest and longest producing oil fields.

Yes, I tell my optimistic friends, we do not know the future and maybe human ingenuity will pull our collective dairy airs out of the fire, but only the most desperate of people depend upon such magical thinking when there is no sign of it yet.  We must also be prepared, I add, for being surprised to the down side.  Mother Nature is a capricious old woman and she is just as likely to throw gas on the fire as try to pull us out.

Cornbread Jukebox

I am trying to make some hay while the (proverbial) sun is shining.  Perhaps I will file a brief news update later but for now I am turning on some tunes and focusing the mind on a thing or two.

A taste, sure I'll share:

The Cultural Phenomonon: In Food and Finance

A great comparison of our food system and our finance system from James over at Baseline Scenario. 

I just read Michael Pollan’s book, In Defense of Food, and what struck me was the parallels between the evolution of food and the evolution of finance since the 1970s. This will only confirm my critics’ belief that I see the same thing everywhere, but bear with me for a minute.

Pollan’s account, grossly simplified, goes something like this. The dominant ideology of food in the United States is nutritionism: the idea that food should be thought of in terms of its component nutrients. Food science is devoted to identifying the nutrients in food that make us healthy or unhealthy, and encouraging us to consume more of the former and less of the latter. This is good for nutritional “science,” since you can write papers about omega-3 fatty acids, while it’s very hard to write papers about broccoli.

 The only thing I might add is that I think you can protect yourself from BOTH systems if you have the appropriate wealth, skill and desire.  Of course, it is a lot easier to change even a lifetime of food habits than it is a lifetime of financial habits since the latter is tied up in any debt and career decisions that you have made (and are difficult to change mid-course.  It is possible, of course, but as one who is trying to change his relationship to both systems, I would rather coach someone in changing their food milieu than their financial relationships.

The best (read most effective) stump speech 2010

Yes, it has gotten a lot of play, but that is because it is a good stump speech with a good central analogy. 

Again, you may not like it or agree with it or think it is overplayed but it gets mention here because I think it is effective in what the Democrats need to do; excite their base enough to show up.

No, you can't have the keys back

Wikileaks: America does not look that bad

In comparison to...


From Slate

Judging from the excerpts and analyses in the English-language papers, the documents contain a few new and interesting things, some of which may not please the war critics who tend to be among WikiLeaks' biggest fans.

The best (read most effective) political ad of 2010

Whether you agree or disagree with the message, whether you think it is fear-mongering or prophetic warning (every prophet is after all a fear-monger though not all fear-mongers are prophets), I think as far as the cinema and nailing the zeitgeist, this has to be the political ad of the season.

The ongoing housing mess

Housing down and going lower:

Gary Schilling wrote the book on housing and having listened to him over a number of years, my ears perk up when I hear his name.  I seem unable to embed the video but you can watch an interview with CNBC here:

The additional complication this scenerio adds is that housing equivilent rent (the way the economic powers follow the price of houseing in America) comprises ~70% of the official formula for calculating the inflation or deflation rate in the United States.  As a result a fall in housing to or below the historical mean could result in numbers (and headlines) which scream of deflation even while the prices of things that you and I buy everyday were going up due either to world-wide monetary concerns about the dollar, growing trade barriers, resource depletion or any combination thereof. 
 
As a result we would have what I have, for a time now, seen as the problem on the horizon: a great re-pricing of pretty much everything which could be felt as inflation, deflation or over all stability based upon your personal situation.  If you are a saver, it could feel like inflation (low real interest rates which lead to loss of capital), if you are in too much debt it could feel like deflation (less disposable income with which to pay back debt). 
 
It is an age of hurt where one is less concerned about making progress in their economic lives but rather limiting the amount of hurt.  The best place to be would be someplace in the middle ("neither a seller nor a buyer be").  I'm not there yet but I am running; but not fast enough.

Related:
Account Balances, the Dollar and American Power 
Robo-signing: the Tip of the Iceberg
Time for a New Stress Test?
Huffpost: Foreclose on Bank of America

Cholera Outbreak in Haiti

I have to confess, after we got through the first 3 to 4 months post-earthquake I thought the risk of Cholera was behind us.  The international community took this for granted and now we are stuck in the position of needing to respond.

Link to Story

ST. MARC, Haiti (AP) — A cholera epidemic spread in central Haiti on Friday as aid groups rushed doctors and supplies to fight the country's worst health crisis since January's earthquake. Nearly 200 deaths had been confirmed and more than 2,000 people were ill.

The first two cases of the disease outside the rural Artibonite region were confirmed in Arcahaie, a town that is closer to the quake-devastated capital, Port-au-Prince.

Officials are concerned the outbreak could reach the squalid tarp camps where hundreds of thousands of quake survivors live in the capital.

"It will be very, very dangerous," said Claude Surena, president of the Haitian Medical Association. "Port-au-Prince already has more than 2.4 million people, and the way they are living is dangerous enough already."

Meet the newest Islamophobe:

It would seem that even Juan Williams is not immune to prosecution if, in a weak moment, he confesses to a thought crime against the tenants of political correctness.

NPR News has terminated the contract of longtime news analyst Juan Williams after remarks he made on the Fox News Channel about Muslims.

...

Williams responded: "Look, Bill, I'm not a bigot. You know the kind of books I've written about the civil rights movement in this country. But when I get on the plane, I got to tell you, if I see people who are in Muslim garb and I think, you know, they are identifying themselves first and foremost as Muslims, I get worried. I get nervous."


Williams also warned O'Reilly against blaming all Muslims for "extremists," saying Christians shouldn't be blamed for Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh.

Virtue and the Value Added Tax

Consumption, if you listen to the mainstream economic press, has become a necessity. 

Consumption is around 70% of the economy of the United States so any reduction of that consumption results in the loss of jobs.  Most of the criticisms of Quantitative Easing 2 has revolved around the fact that it will not get money into the hands of consumers who would then spend the money on goods and services which would then create, we are told, jobs.  Such is the contemporary paradigm anyway.

Yet I do not know a single person who, having thought about the issue, does not mourn the amount of waste and garbage in our society.  Right, Left, Republican, Democrat, environmentalist or Tea-Bagger; they all mourn our throw-away society where items are often shoddily made and unable to be fixed, even if there is a desire to do so.  Planned obsolescence has seized our economic models from IPods to washing machines.  We have developed a culture that disdains the old and values the new.  We have even been trained to rejoice when a thing breaks for we have been given the opportunity to replace it with a newer model.  At some level we are all guilty but I have yet to meet a person who thinks of this cultural development as a virtue; even if not all think it a vice.

Practical minded men and women will tell us this is the way that it has to be, because this is the way that it is now.  I cannot help but wonder, however, there might be the opportunity for something better in the future.

At this moment in history the federal government is funded by the taxing of income.  While some states and municipalities have a sales tax there is no national sales tax.  The result is that the tax system creates an obstacle to the creation of personal wealth, by taxing it but studiously avoids creating any obstacle to spending.  It is, perhaps, a trick of the brain that after working hard to earn money it is made easy to spend.

A Value Added Tax (VAT), in lieu of our current income tax system, would encourage work (since it would no longer be taxed) and discourage spending (since it would become more expensive).  I am under no illusions that cultural trends can be changed abruptly but this would have the effect of encouraging people to fix items that otherwise might be thrown away, creating a market incentive for companies to produce products which are capable of being repaired.  As a case in point, I am notorious for loosing things, especially small things.  Yet I notice even I am able to keep track of a pen if I both like it but, more importantly, have also spent more for it than a cheap disposable plastic pen which I picked up cheaply. 

In discouraging spending we would also expect to see an impact in the cultural attitude toward the issue of saving for the future.  Again, it would take some time but in disincentivizing spending Americans would be more prone to first use their new found wealth to pay down debt (which would not incur a tax since the item had been purchased in the past) which could later become a propensity to save.

There are some obstacles to this proposal.  It may very well be necessary to repeal the 16th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States in order to convince those of us who do not trust the Federal Government to truly replace rather than augment the income tax with a new VAT.  There is also the unfair effect such a change would have on the retired and other savers who have already paid an income tax on the money they have saved and will, effectively, have it taxed a second time when ever they are ready to spend it.  We will also need to see changes in the organization of our economy.  We will need fewer retailers sand more fix-it-men, fewer Marketing Majors and more mechanics.

There is no quick solution to the problems of the vice we mourn or an easy way to build virtue we would like to claim.  Neither can be had without a cost.  The conversation we need to be having is if we are willing to embrace the change necessary to make our children and grandchildren better people, living in a stronger culture, taking for granted skills that we do not yet have and confused by a historical reports of our present, a present in which we too well understand and are embarrassed by.  They will benefit if we demonstrate the freedom of mind necessary to resist those who are stuck in what is and envision what is not yet.

Talking About Bullies

My six-year-old and I had a long conversation the other morning about bullying. The conversation arose from events I heard from my bed as a conflict between the six-year-old and his little brother escalated. The older brother was telling the younger how a game was going to be played and what he was expected to do. The elder's voice got loud and then, as I was about to intervene, the unmistakable hollow thud of the fist of one striking the chest of other. Now fully awake and involved the six-year-old quickly attempted to hug his brother and say that he was sorry. That, I explained, was not enough.


As we processed what had happened I introduced him to the concept of bully. "A bully," I explained, "is a big kid who is mean to little kids in order to control them." To bring the idea home I leaned on his current fascination with Spider Man. "Peter Parker," I continued, "uses his powers to help those without powers. He does not use them to get his own way. That is why he sometimes says, 'with great power comes great responsibility.'"

I was a little surprised at the impact the conversation had on him. "Bully" has become a new word in his vocabulary. It is a good thing that it has. They, and those who would be, will always be with him.

I have long taken issue with the stream of liberal thought which in the process of favoring some victims over others legitimizes the violence of preferred movements while denouncing that of incorrect movements. Chang-Kai-Shek is vilified while Mao is justified. Castro is hero of resistance. Batista was an oppressor. The crimes of the Shah must be publicized. The tendency of the mullahs to execute rape victims for adultery or homosexuals for existing is overlooked or, at worse, construed as justifiable response to the excess of the Shah (and the CIA).

Stepping aside from the ideological ax sharpening of the right or left we should acknowledge that bullies come from all walks of life, from all nations and movements, and from all political inclinations. The temptation to tyranny is present in the human soul, as evidenced in the tyrannical attempt of my oldest son that morning. If we are to be moral, we must guard ourselves. If we are to be free, we must resist it in others.

Aristotle taught us that we become brave people by acting bravely. Likewise we become the kind of people who stand up to bullies by standing up to bullies. Only if we are individually practiced in this virtue in the challenges we face in the microcosm of our everyday lives can we hope to become a people who practice such resistance when faced with societal challenges whether they be foreign or domestic or come from the right or the left of the political spectrum.

Bullies will call us un-American for being imminently American. Bullies will accuse you of being racist for seeking accountability. Bullies will threaten to withhold economic cooperation for speaking out against human-rights abuses. Bullies will threaten to kill unless we prioritize their piety over our right to be profane. If the key philosophical problem facing the race is the problem of suffering, the most important pragmatic concern is the resistance of the tyrannical.

Contemporary pedagogy has focused on the inherent righteousness of the individual (if only we protect and nurture them properly) to such an extent that it must deny the inherent flaws within us all. Instead of training men and women to resist the school yard bully we equate the assertiveness of resistance with the aggression of tyranny. Young women are not taught to stand up to the "mean girls" and young men are not instilled with the self-confidence to emotionally resist the taunts of the strong boy or click.

I am not advocating a return to the schoolyard scuffle (though I do not fear it) but am attempting to emphasize the importance of its internal corollary: the willingness and the ability to say "No" in the face of physical or emotional blackmail or threat. In dictating a "zero tolerance" disapproval of violence that makes no distinction between victim and bully, between tyrant and freedom fighter, we are undermining the training ground for the virtues upon which the best of Western Civilization stands or falls.

The presence of children committing suicide in response to bullying is a personal tragedy but should also serve as a social warning. We are not building young people with the resilience to face-down their tormentors. We do not need to teach them to kick their opponents in the knee. We do need to train them in the confidence to say "No" without fear of the consequences because they will then grow into adults able to say "No" to the oppressors that will come later in life. To say “No” to those who would enslave the populace to anything other than our national covenant to respect the rights of one another. That training begins in our homes and families. We need to foster it in our schools. We need to honor it in our public space. We need to confess when it is we who are guilty of acting the tyrant in our home, nation or world.

Rare Earth Export Ban Expanded?

China expands the ban on rare earth exports?

HONG KONG — China, which has been blocking shipments of crucial minerals to Japan for the last month, has now quietly halted shipments of those materials to the United States and Europe, three industry officials said on Tuesday.

The Chinese action, involving rare earth minerals that are crucial to manufacturing many advanced products, seems certain to further intensify already rising trade and currency tensions.

Around the World Monday (Evening)

French riot police clash with students as petrol stations run dry 

Despite claims that it had petrol provision “under control”, the government said it had activated an emergency crisis cell charged with maintaining fuel supplies.

The opposition Socialists criticised François Fillon, the prime minister, for failing to speak to the unions over proposed pension reforms, which would raise minimum and full retirement ages to 62 and 67.

Sorry folks, I think at some point you're going to have to do the math and accept that somethings just don't add up they way we want the to.

Osama bin Laden is alive and well and living comfortably in a house in the north-west of Pakistan protected by local people and elements of the country's intelligence services, according to a senior NATO official.

The latest assessment contradicts the belief that the al-Qaeda leader is roughing it in underground bunkers as he dodged CIA drones hunting him from the air.

"Nobody in al-Qaeda is living in a cave," according to an unnamed Nato official quoted by CNN.

I would love to know how we both know this and have not um... visited, those houses.

On the lighter side, mysterious lights over El Paso that are similar to those seen in NYC a few days ago.  UFO's?  Military Maneuvers?  The truth is out there but I think the use of the X-Files theme is becoming a bit passe.

All it needs is a coat of paint

The boys discovered the earth worms that had been living under the old pile of wood as the two dogs watched on attentively.  Hopefully the weather will hold out that I will be able to get a coat of paint on it this week or next.  But even If I don't, it is good to have the job done.

Time to sell?

I don't own any gold.  I would be slow to buy at these prices yet I still see enough room for inflation that I would NOT pity the fool who did buy.  Yet when I see stuff like this, I can not help but think it would be time to sell (again, if I had any to sell).

Around the World Monday

->Paul Krugman recognizes the right-wing warnings about China:

Last month a Chinese trawler operating in Japanese-controlled waters collided with two vessels of Japan’s Coast Guard. Japan detained the trawler’s captain; China responded by cutting off Japan’s access to crucial raw materials.

And there was nowhere else to turn: China accounts for 97 percent of the world’s supply of rare earths, minerals that play an essential role in many high-technology products, including military equipment. Sure enough, Japan soon let the captain go.

I don’t know about you, but I find this story deeply disturbing, both for what it says about China and what it says about us.

->Ever wonder what normal Palestinians say when they are on-line?  Ever consider what that means for the prospects for peace?

->Though it occasionally makes the headlines the violence of Central Africa is largely overlooked in the press (warning: not for the easily traumatized).

->There is a Presidential election in process in Brazil. 

Dilma Rousseff, the former Marxist guerrilla who fell just short of an overall majority in the first round of voting in the presidential election in Brazil, is increasingly confident of victory in the second round to be held at the end of this month.

Ms Rousseff, a former chief of staff for the hugely popular outgoing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the Workers’ Party candidate, won 47 per cent of the popular vote on Sunday October 3 while her main opponent, José Serra, a former Mayor of Sao Paulo and the candidate for the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy, won 33 per cent while Marina Silva, the Green Party candidate, got 19 per cent.

Angela Merckel, the mainstream Chancellor of Germany proclaims that multiculturalism has failed.

Attempts to build a multicultural society in Germany have "utterly failed", Chancellor Angela Merkel says.

She said the so-called "multikulti" concept - where people would "live side-by-side" happily - did not work, and immigrants needed to do more to integrate - including learning German.

In 2012/2013 China (in a process no one seems to understand) will choose its next generation of leaders.  The Kremlinology has begun.

China's Vice-President Xi Jinping has been named vice-chair of the powerful Central Military Commission, in a move widely seen as a boost to his likely succession of President Hu Jintao.

It comes on the last day of the ruling Communist Party's annual meeting.

• The New York Times reports that the new generation of Chinese military officers are more hostile to the United States.
• The budding political leadership came of age during the more insular period of the Cultural Revolution, while their predecessors at least had the opportunity to study in the Soviet Union and the later generations in the West.
• Stratfor has a free analysis of the next generation of Chinese Leadership, but they want your email address.

It is time to say "Enough!" to the cheap shots.

Bishop Gene Robinson, in the Huffington Post claims that religion, and by that he means traditional Christianity, is driving young homosexuals and those who are perceived by their peers as homosexuals, to suicide. 

You have to dig deep into this essay to find the connection but we seem to hit at the idea here,

You don't have to grow up in a religious household, though, to absorb these religious messages. Not long ago I had a conversation with six gay teens, not one of whom had ever had any formal religious training or influence. Every one of them knew the word "abomination," and every one of them thought that was what God thought of them. They couldn't have located the Book of Leviticus in the Bible if their lives depended on it yet they had absorbed this message from the antigay air they breathe every day.

The Bishop has no argument or facts but rather an ax to grind.  Was the Rutgers roommate who filmed and publisized the gay encounter which led a young man to kill himself acting out of religious conviction?   If so I haven't heard that fact (and I think we would have heard about it by now).   In the tragedies of the last few weeks, has the Bible Belt or other religious communities been over-represented?  The Bishop knows they have not,

With the exception of Brown in Texas these suicides are not happening in Bible Belt regions of the country, where we might predict a greater-than-usual regard for religious thought. Instead, they are occurring in states perceived to be more liberal on LGBT issues: California, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Rhode Island.

Yet this does not need him to question his premise but rather speaks to the supposed pervasiveness of traditional religious thought in America.  We were not at the scene of the crimes, we have a good alibi but like all good scapegoats we remain responsible due to are secret and pervasive hold on the mind of America's youth.  Dear Bishop Robinson, we are not that powerful.  We can't stop our own kids from having premarital hetrosexual or homosexual intercourse.  I assure you we can not compel non-churched youth to bully gays in the secular schools, public Internet and private text messages. 

If Bishop Robinson were attacking any other group with such imaginations of subliminal power, he would be roundly (and properly) criticized by the political left he represents.  If he painted Muslims in such broad strokes with such a corrosive power to drive teens to suicide, he would be branded an Islam-ophobe.  Despite having and stronger conservative monotheistic perspective on homosexual issues, he is, however suspiciously silent on Islam.  He thinks we have some deep cultural power.  I'm sorry sir but we have tried to outlaw abortion for nearly forty years without success.  I think the weapons of mass destruction you think we possess are a mirage.


What is likely at work is that Bishop Robinson, like all of us, is a product of his biography; a biography which has taught him that the enemy of gay and lesbian youth is traditional readings of Scripture.  I would observe that while the Bishop and traditional Christians may have very different readings of Scripture it does not mean that traditional Christians are the only "enemies" (I do not think Bishop Robinson is my enemy, let alone gay youth, but he seems to treat me like one) gay youth have. 

It will not help young gay men and women struggling with their identity to attack the straw man of traditional Christianity and Judaism.  We do not run the world anymore (if we ever did), and we are, I would wager, just as or even more appalled by the youth culture from which bullying and taunting sprouts.  It is in identifying this youth culture as the threat to gay youth, a culture which has nothing to do with religion, conservative or otherwise, that we begin to address the real problem.

If we are to help these young people (and I think we should) than we need to get beyond the easy digs of the culture war.  I think one place to start, a place that I think serious liberals and conservatives can agree is to resist the extended and indulgent adolescence which has come to characterize the youth culture which ostracizes and attacks young people who are different.  By dumbing down the expectations of responsibility and civility we have of young people we actively contribute to the acceptance of the culture of the bully and the silence which pervades those young people who would speak up to support their bullied peers.  We have extended Jr. High antics into High School and Sophomoric behavior into College.   

When we do not expect them to act like adults; they do not.  When we tell them that it is expected that they will act with youthful disinterest in the consequences of their actions on others, they will.   We should not be too surprised that youth who are the victims of that behavior become convinced that it will never end; it gets longer with every passing year, not because a person or group is advocating it but because the culture has drifted into extending adolescent behavior.  We have me the enemy, and he is us. 

Like all generals, Bishop Robinson is fighting the last war.  Traditional Christians or their cultural mores is not killing young gay men.  A youth culture which could only with great imagination be more hedonistic is killing them.  He could find in Traditional Christians a great ally in the resisting of this youth culture, if only he could take the time to stop the cheap and flimsy shots at them.      

Two Steps forward...

one step back.

Somewhere in my brain I knew I needed to place nailers on the 2x10 rafters, but I couldn't access it when I needed it.  So today, instead of painting, I took the metal roof back off, put some 1X rough sawn hardwood lumber that I had collecting dust up on the 2x10's and then put the metal roof back on.

In the process I learned that metal roofing is a good conductor of electricity from an electric fence.

Some friends also came by to borrow the billy goat for a few months.  He is always a fan of car trips, especially when they are opportunities to go a courtin' at the end of them.

Enjoy the day

Sometimes you just have to sit down and enjoy a warm October Day.

Have a good weekend!

Building the Woodshed (Day Two)

The first thing Kristi said this morning when I started sawing down the extra lengths of 4x4s was, "Your parents are not going to approve."  "Sorry Dear," was my reply, "where do you think I learned how to do it this way?"

Yes, that is a chainsaw in my hands.

 Haul the metal roofing out.

Slide it into place (harder than it sounds when you are bulldogging a 16 foot long piece of sharp metal).

Then you "just" screw it into place!

Tomorrow, painting and moving the wood pile into its new home.

Are Goats Stealing American Jobs?

 OK, I can be pretty critical of Steve Colbert from time to time, but sometimes he is funny:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
People Destroying America- Goats Steal Landscaping Jobs
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes 2010 Election March to Keep Fear Alive

Congressional Briefing: Can oil production meet demand?

Via the Oil Drum:

On Thursday, October 7, the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) conducted a congressional briefing on challenges of the oil industry to keep pace with rising global demand, and the potential implications for oil prices, national security and the world economy.
The panelists included a combination of some people in Washington DC for the ASPO-USA meeting (Robert Hirsch, Tad Patzek, and Arthur Berman) and some people currently or recently involved with government offices (including Franklin Rusco, Director of Energy at the GAO, and Guy Caruso, Former Administrator of the EIA). I found it especially interesting that the latter two, especially Guy Caruso, were concerned about oil supply. As head of the EIA from 2002 to 2008, Guy Caruso did not seem to voice these concerns.

MP3 Recording of the briefings

Finance Friday

Bernanke makes case for further easing:

BOSTON — The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, sent a clear signal on Friday that the central bank was poised to take additional steps to try to fight persistently low inflation and high unemployment.

“Given the committee’s objectives, there would appear — all else being equal — to be a case for further action,” he said in a detailed speech at a gathering of top economists here.

Mr. Bernanke noted that “unconventional policies have costs and limitations that must be taken into account in judging whether and how aggressively they should be used.” But he suggested that the Fed was prepared to manage the risks associated with the most powerful tool remaining in the Fed’s arsenal of weapons to stimulate the economy: vast new purchases of government debt to lower long-term interest rates.

and gold jumps higher:

 Victor Davis Hanson: We are Shamed by Our Debt

We will learn in November just how angry the public is about a lot of things, from higher taxes to massive unemployment. But the popular uproar pales in comparison to the sense of humiliation that we Americans are quite broke.

In 2008, the public was furious at George W. Bush, not because he was too much of a right-wing tightwad, but because he ran up a series of what were then thought to be gargantuan deficits.

In Nevada we find a battle of policical philosophies:

LAS VEGAS — The debate Thursday evening between Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, and Sharron Angle, the Republican running with Tea Party support, had been promoted as a climactic duel between two opponents for a Nevada Senate seat, locked in an exceedingly tight contest in what may well be the most closely watched race of the fall.

The latest on President Obama, his administration and other news from Washington and around the nation.

What viewers saw here was a vivid contrast of philosophy between two competing forces in American politics this election cycle: Mr. Reid, the face of the Democratic establishment and champion of President Obama’s policies, and Ms. Angle, the hero of the Tea Party. They offered fundamentally different visions of the role of government in dealing with issues including health care, regulating banks and the insurance industry, and using government programs to create jobs.

 French Protests Escalate: Fuel Pipelines cut

PARIS, Oct 15 (Reuters) - French refinery workers cut off a fuel pipeline to Paris on Friday as protesters piled on pressure to derail President Nicolas Sarkozy's unpopular pension reform.
Police broke up blockades at fuel depots in southern France but protesters blocked a terminal at Paris's Orly airport and truckers were set to join the fray as momentum built for a day of street rallies on Saturday.

A nationwide strike is planned on Tuesday, a day before the Senate is due to vote on a bill to make people work longer for their pensions.

Building the Woodshed (Day One)

Following the news is what I do when I am kept from doing those things that I would rather be doing.  Today I got to start on the wood shed.

First we set the corners:

Then we tied it together at the top.

And then added the rafters.  Tomorrow I will place a couple of more posts in the ground to support the horizontal spans and screw the metal roof in place.  If I get an early enough start, I might even paint the thing.

A word of thanks to Tim M!  He was a lot of help.  I need someone to keep me honest so as not to give up and make that baby square!

WSJ's best guess on what Ben Bernanke will say tomorrow

WSJ: What to expect when Bernanke speaks tomorrow:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives an important speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Friday morning on monetary policy in a low-inflation environment — important because it comes just a few weeks before the Fed’s next policy meeting and because the time is ripe for him to lay out his thinking on the Fed’s next steps more clearly. Here’s our best guess about some of the issues that we think are on his mind:

She was only playing dead:

Dead dog refuses to stay that way

As any pet owner can attest to, it was no easy task for Matt Olivarez to end the life of his 10-year-old family dog, Mia. But with spinal problems that left her barely able to walk, the veterinarian told Olivarez that there were no better options to ease her pain.

Kimchi Prices Rise Government Promises Action!

Kimchi Prices Rise, Government Promises Action

SEOUL, South Korea — Even in the middle of a loud and bustling outdoor market, her voice drops to a whisper when she agrees to reveal the two secret ingredients that make her kimchi so popular with her customers.

“Fermented-anchovy paste and pickled-prune sauce,” says Kim Gil-soo, looking warily, both ways, down the alley in front of her store, called Prosperity.

“I special-order the sauce from a certain place in the countryside,” she said, still whispering. “I’m quite well known for my kimchi.”
But recent sales have been disappointing, Mrs. Kim said, because of an unavoidable spike in the price of her kimchi, the fiery and pungent Korean national dish that typically combines cabbage, radishes, red chili peppers, garlic and salt. The price for one head of long-leafed Napa cabbage grown in Korea has skyrocketed in the past month, to as much as $14, from about $2.50. Domestic radishes have tripled in price, to more than $5 apiece, and the price of garlic has more than doubled.

Evening Update

Its all up, up, up: Trade Deficit, Jobless Claims and Inflation

New U.S. claims for jobless benefits rose last week, hardening the view the central bank will pump more money into the economy, and keeping pressure on Democrats poised to lose congressional seats in Nov. 2 polls.

At the same time, record-high imports from China helped push the U.S. trade deficit wider in August, while rising food and energy prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up twice as fast as expected last month.

Hard times make us more tribal?

Asked about what the questioner saw as an increase in racial tension Thursday, President Obama said a "tribal attitude" can come as a result of economic hardship.

"Historically, when you look at how America has evolved, typically we make progress on race relations in fits and starts," he said at a town hall event with young Americans.

He then suggested that the recession has played a part in driving racial antagonism while he has been in office.

"Often times misunderstandings and antagonisms surface most strongly when times are tough. And that's not surprising," Mr. Obama said, arguing that Americans are less worried when things are going well.

Family seizes their foreclosed home back:

One of the long-shot outcomes of the current foreclosure mess could be a chaotic scenario in which people fight to get their foreclosed homes back.
Enter the Earl family in Simi Valley, Calif. Over the weekend, Jim and Danielle Earl reportedly took their nine children, ages 9-23, and a locksmith and broke into the six-bedroom house they used to call home. The move was recommended by their lawyer, according to a story on Aol’s HousingWatch.com.

Resource Limits  may limit economic recovery:

We may rail against the regulators, politicians, and others who failed to understand and manage past risks, but we are just as culpable for our failure to engage with severe, well-signposted, imminent ones. Impassioned arguments over bank nationalisation, battered government finances and the austerity-stimulus debate consume us today, but in reality may be little more than a Lilliputian tussle over the fag-end of our globalised economy. But it seems we cannot see our own predicament.

Recent reports from sources as diverse as Lloyds Insurance and Chatham House, the UK Peak Oil Task Force, and US and German military think-tanks are the latest in a long list of warnings that we are at, or close to, a peak in global oil production. Peak oil refers to the time of the maximum rate of global oil production after which terminal decline sets in.

A-Jad visits the South Lebanese border:

BEIRUT (AP) - Hezbollah supporters used mosque loudspeakers Thursday to rally crowds ahead of a trip by Iran's president to southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, a visit the U.S. and Israel have called intentionally provocative.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Lebanon on Wednesday to a rapturous welcome organized by Hezbollah. His country is the main patron of the Shiite militant group, the most powerful military force in Lebanon.

China  still withholding Rare Earths from Japan:

China released its last Japanese hostage Saturday, marking an end to the recent East China Sea conflict, but the diplomatic waters remain choppy. Trade and Industry Minister Akihiro Ohata confirmed Tuesday that China continues to wield a de facto export ban over Japanese industry, marking a new stage in China's aggressive behavior. Tokyo and other liberal capitals have been startled by this turn of events - which means it's long past time for policy makers to plan a better response to this serious threat.

Arab powers preparing for war?

While Western diplomats and sanctions-enforcers ply their trade to pressure Iran into stopping its uranium enrichment, much of the Middle East is already preparing for war. Headlines might focus on United Nations resolutions initiated by Western powers, or on fiery speeches delivered by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But just a few hundred miles from Tehran, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf have launched a race to arm themselves with an urgency and intensity reminiscent of America's defense build-up prior to its entry into World War II.

The magnitude of the weapons purchases is nothing short of astounding and the speed at which they are accelerating is breathtaking.

What do Wisconsin Voters Want? R-E-S-P-E-C-T

It seems the New York Times editorial page has become an expert on how the people of Wisconsin think and vote: we’re weak-minded Midwesterners. Of course in good professional fashion the Times put it in a more sophisticated manner than my plain Midwestern speech. Specifically, the paper believes Ron Johnson is leading in the polls due to:

• The public’s lack of attention to detail.
• The misinformation and simplistic solutions propounded by talk radio.
• Wisconsin has become “like other Midwestern states” (what exactly do you think of the other Midwestern states Mr. New York Times?).

Ironically it is the very assumptions present in the editorial which is leading so many citizens of Wisconsin to abandon Russ Feingold in an election which has been effectively nationalized. Russ is victim less to the talk radio or an ignorant population but rather a national progressive movement which seems Hell bent on insulting large portions of America on a regular basis. Whether it is Congressman Grayson of California implying that there is no difference between traditional Christians and the Taliban in a re-election ad or the dismissal of deficit concerns by waiving Pay-Go legislation thirty-one times since it was passed in 2007, middle-America knows when its person and values are being taken for granted and pushes back.

It would appear the height of hypocrisy when a progressive movement which claims to stand for importance of individual rights to be so blatantly dismissive of swing voters for exercising the very right upon which the nation is founded: the right to exercise independence at the ballot box. The criticisms of Wisconsin’s leaning toward Ron Johnson arise from districts and states which, for the most part, have not seen a competitive race in decades. Having been effectively trapped by a slavish commitment to one party where November elections are decided by capturing the power of a party machine in the run-up to a primary or caucus, the same people who forget that there are baseball teams outside New York and Boston also appear speechless that an independent people might make a statement to the nation’s leadership through the only means open to them: the exercise of the ballot. The New York Times is right to ask why Wisconsin is leaning Republican. It is arrogant to lean on thinly veiled stereotypes of “the Midwest.”

The course toward restoring Midwest Progressivism will not be found in attacking the electorate or culture of the Midwest. It will be found by offering the minimum of respect to the cultures and values of the Midwest which grow along side and contribute to progressive ideals in our political eco-system. When a progressive in Florida calls an opponent “Taliban” in a very misleading ad, it hurts Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. It is our literal-minded Christianity which leads some of us to support many a Progressive initiative, perhaps other progressives should learn to be tolerant of that? When a national paper like the New York Times portrays voters who are swinging toward Ron Johnson as nothing but nodding Ditto heads, it re-enforces the narrative that the leadership of the progressive movement on the coasts does not understand Middle America frustration. It is difficult for a Democrat in middle America to defend how the progressive movement is “for us” when an editorialist, supposedly trying to sway minds in a progressive direction, can causally say things like “and become more like other Midwestern states” as if that is a bad thing.

I will vote for Russ Feingold on November 2^nd because I think he is the better of the two candidates. Progressives in the Public Sphere, however, make it next to impossible for me to articulate a convincing argument to that effect to my neighbors. For the most part they don’t dislike Russ or think Ron is the bee’s knees. They quite rightly feel the disdain of a national media and political leadership who looks down upon them as ignorant imbeciles. Their only way to resist or speak against being treated in such a manner is to vote against Russ Feingold. Russ may not be to blame but he bears the consequence.

The New York Times knows little of the Wisconsin electorate. Luckily if its editorialists want to know why Wisconsin may not return Russ Feingold to Washington they do not need to be. In the age of a nationalized media they need only look at how they are reflected and spoken of by the nation’s progressive leadership and on their own pages. The swing-voter in Wisconsin is only acting like a people who insist on being treated with respect and dignity. What could be more American than that?

Daily Scan

Bloomberg News: Feingold a Real Maverick

Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin is not among those members of Congress to have “gone Washington.” He’s as Wisconsin as the Green Bay Packers, walleyes, cheeseheads and chocolate bacon on a stick.
When he ran in 1992, defeating Republican incumbent Bob Kasten after dispatching two wealthy Democrats in the primary, Feingold posted five promises on his garage door that, 18 years later, could serve as the manifesto for this election season’s crop of angry outsiders.

Feingold pledged to live and send his children to public school in Wisconsin, reject any pay raise, visit each of the state’s 72 counties every year and rely on in-state contributions for the bulk of his fundraising. To reduce the influence of money in politics, he joined with Republican John McCain, back when the Arizona senator was still copping to being a maverick, on the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law.

Are Newspapers Just Acting out of Fear?

As Radley Balko noted in yesterday's Morning Links, the Washington Post and other newspapers pulled Wiley Miller's syndicated "Non Sequitur" cartoon from their comics pages two Sundays back, because Miller pulled a familiar-to-Reason-readers "where's Waldo?" gag with the Prophet Muhammad, satirizing the new 21st century taboo on the depiction of even jokes about the fear of depicting a historical figure who really existed.

As is typical of the genre, Washington Post editors tried to play their own "where's Waldo" with the censorship process:

 Mine is Sealed After the last is Rescued

Sebastien Pinera, Chile's president, seal the rescue shaft after all six of the rescue party left the mine.

Mr Pinera said the the mine "will definitely never open again", after a day in which the miners were pulled up through the escape chut in less than 23 hours. The president also said the conditions that allowed the accident "will not go unpunished. Those who are responsible will have to assume their responsibility."

Who needs death panels when you have unfunded promises?

NYT Reports: New York counties and municipalities have made promises but not any plans:

The cities, counties and authorities of New York have promised more than $200 billion worth of health benefits to their retirees while setting aside almost nothing, putting the public work force on a collision course with the taxpayers who are expected to foot the bill.

If she's a rock star, what does that say about the national mood?

Michele Bachmann brings in 5.4 Million in the 3rd Quarter.

Tea Party-backed Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-MN, raised an extraordinary $5.4 million in the third quarter, possibly smashing a congressional fundraising record for a three-month period while pushing her total fundraising haul for this election cycle to almost $10 million.

Free TV time three weeks before an election?

Everyone claims it is not political but can a politician open their mouth so close to an election and it not be just that?

Viacom networks MTV, BET and CMT are giving an hour of free air time to President Obama less than three weeks before the midterm elections.
The so-called “A Conversation with President Obama” will be live and commercial-free on six Viacom networks at 4 p.m. on Thursday. The networks will not give equal time to a Republican before the election, according to a spokeswoman.
MTV denies that the Obama hour of TV is political, despite the timing, weeks before the midterm elections.

Whose the biggest Corporate donor?

And people got upset because Target Corporation gave $150K to MN Forward, a group working for Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Tom Emmer:

Honeywell Takes the Lead

Amid this year's heated debate over corporate campaign cash, the top donor to House and Senate campaigns is a company that was an also-ran in political Washington just a few years ago: Honeywell International Inc.

Honeywell, a diversified manufacturer with a big presence in aerospace and defense contracting, has used its political-action committee to dole out $3 million of federal campaign contributions for next month's elections, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The PAC's donations through Aug. 31 have already exceeded the $2.5 million the PAC distributed to candidates during the entire 2008 presidential election, the Center says.

Try boycotting that!

Mid-term brackets

I never really got into the "March Madness" tradition of working through the brackets with one's own prediction on how the tournement will turn out.  While I share a desrire to make verifiable predictions on the future, I am ignorant of basketball.

Unlike college basketball, I do follow politics and in the spirit of "March Madness" I offer my own predictions of the 2010 mid-terms.  Like the student from MIT who predicts Duke will run the table, I offer the disclaimer that I am trying to predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.  Picking the teams you want to win is a quick way come in last in the office pool.

Senate: GOP 52  Dem 48

This requires a number of upsets.  The biggest being California but I also predict that Republicans will carry Wisconsin, Washington and West Virginia.  I am a little nervous about this prediction since I am not leaving myself any room on the Republican side to act as a safety net for a last minute error.  I am confident in saying that the GOP will not get 53 Senate seats.  They could easily bring home only 51, 50 or 49.

House: GOP 244  Dem 191

Nearly all of the "toss-up" districts are held by Democrats.  I am playing the trend here.  The real fun with predicting the house will be in 2012 after the redistricting which will take place in the next two years (in response to the 2010 census).  Again, however, the risk in this prediction is in the direction of a smaller GOP gain.

Govenors:

Ca:  Brown (D)
MN: Dayton (D)
WI: Walker (R)
IL: Brady (R)
FL: Scott (R)
VT: Shumlin (D)

Other states' govenors' races are the hardest to follow and the hardest to predict.  There are local issues I cannot know about so I have selected only the most interesting to offer predictions for.   My predictions for FL and VT were decided with a ceremonial coin flip.

So I offer the standard prediction of divided government.  I am, by background and ideology prone to think that this is a good thing.  I cannot help but remind myself that there are a variety of problems "baked into the cake" of the near and mid-term future.  The question is not if we will face them but how, it is not if we will need good leadership but if it will be in place on the day that it is needed.  I'll remain agnostic that any of the options we have before us wil meet the problems better than others but it is a fun distraction to read about the horses and pick out some favorites to win the race.  Only time will tell if they can plow a field.

You know its a wave when you have to ask,

Barnie Frank in trouble in 4th Mass?

It's the kind of political year in which even Rep. Barney Frank is being forced to break a sweat.
The Massachusetts Democrat, one of Congress's most well-known members, usually wins re-election by steamrolling his opponents. This year, he's campaigning aggressively to beat back Sean Bielat, an upstart Republican challenger who was five years old when Mr. Frank first won a House seat in 1980.

13 October 2010

Report warns municipal pensions (way) underfunded

The nation's largest municipal pension plans are carrying a total unfunded liability of $574 billion, which comes on top of as much as $3 trillion in unfunded pension promises made by the states, according to a report released Tuesday.



The Economist: French Students Striking against their own interest

THE French are having another day of industrial action against President Sarkozy's pensions reforms, which involve raising the minimum retirement age to (gasp) 62. One might expect workers in their 50s to be a bit miffed about this. Everybody else ought surely to reflect on whether a society can afford to let people retire for what might be the last 30 years of their lives. Add in the first 20, which are spent on education, and more than half of the average life will be spent not working.


Perhaps they don't teach maths in French schools. For it seems that children in 300 French high schools are also taking part in the action. Now their motivation might be obvious; they just want to bunk off.


(Another) Warning about the economic effects of "Peak Oil"

The world faces decades of economic turmoil and a vicious cycle of recessions as oil supplies run low and prices spike, according to a Parliamentary research paper.

The paper, The Next Oil Shock, says that known oil reserves would last for another 25 to 32 years, but an oil ''supply crunch'' could occur in 2012 or shortly afterwards as demand rises and supplies fail to keep pace.

It was likely to be followed by a pattern of supply and demand crises.

''While the world will not run out of oil reserves for decades to come, it cannot indefinitely continue to produce oil at an increasing rate from the remaining reserves. Forecasts indicate that world oil production capacity will not grow or fall in the next five years while demand will continue to rise.

''There is a risk that the world economy may be at the start of a cycle of supply crunches leading to price spikes and recessions, followed by recoveries leading to supply crunches.''


NYT: Rising Corn Prices Mean Higher Food Prices

First it was heat and drought in Russia. Then it was heat and too much rain in parts of the American Corn Belt. Extreme weather this year has sent grain prices soaring, jolting commodities markets and setting off fears of tight supplies that could eventually hit consumers’ wallets.

Is Your Dog a Pessimist?

Dogs can be worried and pessimistic just like people, researchers report in a new study in Current Biology. And they aren’t talking about basset hounds: those dogs just look as if they expect the worst.

What the scientists say is that dogs that exhibit anxiety when left home alone by their owners may have bigger problems — they may be in a permanent bad mood.