I never really got into the "March Madness" tradition of working through the brackets with one's own prediction on how the tournement will turn out. While I share a desrire to make verifiable predictions on the future, I am ignorant of basketball.
Unlike college basketball, I do follow politics and in the spirit of "March Madness" I offer my own predictions of the 2010 mid-terms. Like the student from MIT who predicts Duke will run the table, I offer the disclaimer that I am trying to predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. Picking the teams you want to win is a quick way come in last in the office pool.
Senate: GOP 52 Dem 48
This requires a number of upsets. The biggest being California but I also predict that Republicans will carry Wisconsin, Washington and West Virginia. I am a little nervous about this prediction since I am not leaving myself any room on the Republican side to act as a safety net for a last minute error. I am confident in saying that the GOP will not get 53 Senate seats. They could easily bring home only 51, 50 or 49.
House: GOP 244 Dem 191
Nearly all of the "toss-up" districts are held by Democrats. I am playing the trend here. The real fun with predicting the house will be in 2012 after the redistricting which will take place in the next two years (in response to the 2010 census). Again, however, the risk in this prediction is in the direction of a smaller GOP gain.
Govenors:
Ca: Brown (D)
MN: Dayton (D)
WI: Walker (R)
IL: Brady (R)
FL: Scott (R)
VT: Shumlin (D)
Other states' govenors' races are the hardest to follow and the hardest to predict. There are local issues I cannot know about so I have selected only the most interesting to offer predictions for. My predictions for FL and VT were decided with a ceremonial coin flip.
So I offer the standard prediction of divided government. I am, by background and ideology prone to think that this is a good thing. I cannot help but remind myself that there are a variety of problems "baked into the cake" of the near and mid-term future. The question is not if we will face them but how, it is not if we will need good leadership but if it will be in place on the day that it is needed. I'll remain agnostic that any of the options we have before us wil meet the problems better than others but it is a fun distraction to read about the horses and pick out some favorites to win the race. Only time will tell if they can plow a field.
Unlike college basketball, I do follow politics and in the spirit of "March Madness" I offer my own predictions of the 2010 mid-terms. Like the student from MIT who predicts Duke will run the table, I offer the disclaimer that I am trying to predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. Picking the teams you want to win is a quick way come in last in the office pool.
Senate: GOP 52 Dem 48
This requires a number of upsets. The biggest being California but I also predict that Republicans will carry Wisconsin, Washington and West Virginia. I am a little nervous about this prediction since I am not leaving myself any room on the Republican side to act as a safety net for a last minute error. I am confident in saying that the GOP will not get 53 Senate seats. They could easily bring home only 51, 50 or 49.
House: GOP 244 Dem 191
Nearly all of the "toss-up" districts are held by Democrats. I am playing the trend here. The real fun with predicting the house will be in 2012 after the redistricting which will take place in the next two years (in response to the 2010 census). Again, however, the risk in this prediction is in the direction of a smaller GOP gain.
Govenors:
Ca: Brown (D)
MN: Dayton (D)
WI: Walker (R)
IL: Brady (R)
FL: Scott (R)
VT: Shumlin (D)
Other states' govenors' races are the hardest to follow and the hardest to predict. There are local issues I cannot know about so I have selected only the most interesting to offer predictions for. My predictions for FL and VT were decided with a ceremonial coin flip.
So I offer the standard prediction of divided government. I am, by background and ideology prone to think that this is a good thing. I cannot help but remind myself that there are a variety of problems "baked into the cake" of the near and mid-term future. The question is not if we will face them but how, it is not if we will need good leadership but if it will be in place on the day that it is needed. I'll remain agnostic that any of the options we have before us wil meet the problems better than others but it is a fun distraction to read about the horses and pick out some favorites to win the race. Only time will tell if they can plow a field.
No comments:
Post a Comment