State Legislatures

Driving through two media markets it looks as if both the Wisconsin and Minnesota Legislatures are going Red.  This makes the govenor's race in Minnesota even more important and magnifies the signifigance of Scott Walker's win in Wisconsin. 

This paves the way for re-districting but a lot of issues controled at the state house.  Conceal Carry in Wisconsin, addressing the budget deficiet in both states, Medicaid eligibility and so much more.  I, like everyone else, may have focused too much on the federal elections and not on what is going on in the states.

Minnesota State Legislature Maps

Grayson Gone

Daniel Webser (what a great name) replaces Alan Grayson who set a new low in baseless fear-mongering in comparing his opponent (an Evangelical) to the Taliban among many other foot-in-mouth moments.

Don't worry, dear reader, I am sure in this flock of Republican newbs we'll have some loud mouths (in addition to the one's the Republicans already have) for us to roll our eyes in response too and wish the defeat of.  Tonight is just our night to get rid of a few on the left side of the aisle.  Tomorrow is another day.

early results/turnout

(Nearly) Every politician will use (nearly) any tool to get elected.  It seems as if Democrats have successfully used fear to spur their base into showing up at the polls.

I was wrong in my prediction.

As a result the Republican tide will not wash as high as it might have.  If fear of the evil, insane, Republicans was instilled deep enough than we could even see Reid hold on to NV (not that Angle was that great of a candidate) and I might have to listen to Barbara Boxer's voice for another 6 years.  Luckily, she is such a poor legislator that she will probably not sponsor any more signature legislation than she has these first 18 years.

The night begins.  Perhaps there will be surprises.  I am watching the House races most closely because of the lack of polling in many of these elections.  Also the Governors' races since we will be redistricting before 2012 and those lines will have a large impact for a decade to come.  Each state (as I recall) has its own rules for how the lines are to be drawn but most states allow the state legislator and Governor to have their hand in the pie.

Enthusiasm Gap

Despite long odds I still stand by the predictions I made earlier in the month despite the fact that some of the final and most reliable polls have Boxer and some other Democrats winning their tight races.

The reason why is voter turnout.  It is always difficult to model who is going to turn out on any given election but it is this modeling on which all reliable polls are based.  I am thinking that the enthusiasm gap will give Republicans 3-5 percentage points over what most of the current polls suggest.  Who am I to doubt the professional pollsters?

Just a guy on the Internet which means that I do not have to conform my expectations to the industry in order to protect my backside and keep my job come November third.  ;)

Have a good Sunday!

What do Wisconsin Voters Want? R-E-S-P-E-C-T

It seems the New York Times editorial page has become an expert on how the people of Wisconsin think and vote: we’re weak-minded Midwesterners. Of course in good professional fashion the Times put it in a more sophisticated manner than my plain Midwestern speech. Specifically, the paper believes Ron Johnson is leading in the polls due to:

• The public’s lack of attention to detail.
• The misinformation and simplistic solutions propounded by talk radio.
• Wisconsin has become “like other Midwestern states” (what exactly do you think of the other Midwestern states Mr. New York Times?).

Ironically it is the very assumptions present in the editorial which is leading so many citizens of Wisconsin to abandon Russ Feingold in an election which has been effectively nationalized. Russ is victim less to the talk radio or an ignorant population but rather a national progressive movement which seems Hell bent on insulting large portions of America on a regular basis. Whether it is Congressman Grayson of California implying that there is no difference between traditional Christians and the Taliban in a re-election ad or the dismissal of deficit concerns by waiving Pay-Go legislation thirty-one times since it was passed in 2007, middle-America knows when its person and values are being taken for granted and pushes back.

It would appear the height of hypocrisy when a progressive movement which claims to stand for importance of individual rights to be so blatantly dismissive of swing voters for exercising the very right upon which the nation is founded: the right to exercise independence at the ballot box. The criticisms of Wisconsin’s leaning toward Ron Johnson arise from districts and states which, for the most part, have not seen a competitive race in decades. Having been effectively trapped by a slavish commitment to one party where November elections are decided by capturing the power of a party machine in the run-up to a primary or caucus, the same people who forget that there are baseball teams outside New York and Boston also appear speechless that an independent people might make a statement to the nation’s leadership through the only means open to them: the exercise of the ballot. The New York Times is right to ask why Wisconsin is leaning Republican. It is arrogant to lean on thinly veiled stereotypes of “the Midwest.”

The course toward restoring Midwest Progressivism will not be found in attacking the electorate or culture of the Midwest. It will be found by offering the minimum of respect to the cultures and values of the Midwest which grow along side and contribute to progressive ideals in our political eco-system. When a progressive in Florida calls an opponent “Taliban” in a very misleading ad, it hurts Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. It is our literal-minded Christianity which leads some of us to support many a Progressive initiative, perhaps other progressives should learn to be tolerant of that? When a national paper like the New York Times portrays voters who are swinging toward Ron Johnson as nothing but nodding Ditto heads, it re-enforces the narrative that the leadership of the progressive movement on the coasts does not understand Middle America frustration. It is difficult for a Democrat in middle America to defend how the progressive movement is “for us” when an editorialist, supposedly trying to sway minds in a progressive direction, can causally say things like “and become more like other Midwestern states” as if that is a bad thing.

I will vote for Russ Feingold on November 2^nd because I think he is the better of the two candidates. Progressives in the Public Sphere, however, make it next to impossible for me to articulate a convincing argument to that effect to my neighbors. For the most part they don’t dislike Russ or think Ron is the bee’s knees. They quite rightly feel the disdain of a national media and political leadership who looks down upon them as ignorant imbeciles. Their only way to resist or speak against being treated in such a manner is to vote against Russ Feingold. Russ may not be to blame but he bears the consequence.

The New York Times knows little of the Wisconsin electorate. Luckily if its editorialists want to know why Wisconsin may not return Russ Feingold to Washington they do not need to be. In the age of a nationalized media they need only look at how they are reflected and spoken of by the nation’s progressive leadership and on their own pages. The swing-voter in Wisconsin is only acting like a people who insist on being treated with respect and dignity. What could be more American than that?

If she's a rock star, what does that say about the national mood?

Michele Bachmann brings in 5.4 Million in the 3rd Quarter.

Tea Party-backed Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-MN, raised an extraordinary $5.4 million in the third quarter, possibly smashing a congressional fundraising record for a three-month period while pushing her total fundraising haul for this election cycle to almost $10 million.

Free TV time three weeks before an election?

Everyone claims it is not political but can a politician open their mouth so close to an election and it not be just that?

Viacom networks MTV, BET and CMT are giving an hour of free air time to President Obama less than three weeks before the midterm elections.
The so-called “A Conversation with President Obama” will be live and commercial-free on six Viacom networks at 4 p.m. on Thursday. The networks will not give equal time to a Republican before the election, according to a spokeswoman.
MTV denies that the Obama hour of TV is political, despite the timing, weeks before the midterm elections.

Whose the biggest Corporate donor?

And people got upset because Target Corporation gave $150K to MN Forward, a group working for Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Tom Emmer:

Honeywell Takes the Lead

Amid this year's heated debate over corporate campaign cash, the top donor to House and Senate campaigns is a company that was an also-ran in political Washington just a few years ago: Honeywell International Inc.

Honeywell, a diversified manufacturer with a big presence in aerospace and defense contracting, has used its political-action committee to dole out $3 million of federal campaign contributions for next month's elections, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The PAC's donations through Aug. 31 have already exceeded the $2.5 million the PAC distributed to candidates during the entire 2008 presidential election, the Center says.

Try boycotting that!

Mid-term brackets

I never really got into the "March Madness" tradition of working through the brackets with one's own prediction on how the tournement will turn out.  While I share a desrire to make verifiable predictions on the future, I am ignorant of basketball.

Unlike college basketball, I do follow politics and in the spirit of "March Madness" I offer my own predictions of the 2010 mid-terms.  Like the student from MIT who predicts Duke will run the table, I offer the disclaimer that I am trying to predict what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.  Picking the teams you want to win is a quick way come in last in the office pool.

Senate: GOP 52  Dem 48

This requires a number of upsets.  The biggest being California but I also predict that Republicans will carry Wisconsin, Washington and West Virginia.  I am a little nervous about this prediction since I am not leaving myself any room on the Republican side to act as a safety net for a last minute error.  I am confident in saying that the GOP will not get 53 Senate seats.  They could easily bring home only 51, 50 or 49.

House: GOP 244  Dem 191

Nearly all of the "toss-up" districts are held by Democrats.  I am playing the trend here.  The real fun with predicting the house will be in 2012 after the redistricting which will take place in the next two years (in response to the 2010 census).  Again, however, the risk in this prediction is in the direction of a smaller GOP gain.

Govenors:

Ca:  Brown (D)
MN: Dayton (D)
WI: Walker (R)
IL: Brady (R)
FL: Scott (R)
VT: Shumlin (D)

Other states' govenors' races are the hardest to follow and the hardest to predict.  There are local issues I cannot know about so I have selected only the most interesting to offer predictions for.   My predictions for FL and VT were decided with a ceremonial coin flip.

So I offer the standard prediction of divided government.  I am, by background and ideology prone to think that this is a good thing.  I cannot help but remind myself that there are a variety of problems "baked into the cake" of the near and mid-term future.  The question is not if we will face them but how, it is not if we will need good leadership but if it will be in place on the day that it is needed.  I'll remain agnostic that any of the options we have before us wil meet the problems better than others but it is a fun distraction to read about the horses and pick out some favorites to win the race.  Only time will tell if they can plow a field.

You know its a wave when you have to ask,

Barnie Frank in trouble in 4th Mass?

It's the kind of political year in which even Rep. Barney Frank is being forced to break a sweat.
The Massachusetts Democrat, one of Congress's most well-known members, usually wins re-election by steamrolling his opponents. This year, he's campaigning aggressively to beat back Sean Bielat, an upstart Republican challenger who was five years old when Mr. Frank first won a House seat in 1980.